Role of reliability calculations in geotechnical design

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Abstract
This paper adds to the ongoing discussion on the role of reliability calculations in geotechnical design. It situates design calculations, be it verified by a global factor of safety, partial factors, or reliability-based design (RBD), in a larger context of quality management over the life cycle of the structure. It clarifies that uncertainties amenable to probabilistic treatment typically fall under the category of “known unknowns” where some measured data and/or past experience exist for limited site-specific data to be supplemented by both objective regional data and subjective judgement derived from comparable sites elsewhere. Within this category, reliability is very useful in handling complex real-world information (multivariate correlated data) and information imperfections (scarcity of information or incomplete information). It is also very useful in handling real-world design aspects such as spatial variability that cannot be easily treated using deterministic means. Examples are presented to illustrate how reliability calculations could relieve engineering judgement from the unsuitable task of performance verification in the presence of uncertainties so that the engineer can focus on setting up the right lines of scientific investigation, selecting the appropriate models and parameters for calculations, and verifying the reasonableness of the results.

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