Exploring Habitat Quality Dynamics in an Equatorial Andean Basin Under Scenarios of Land Use Change

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Abstract
Globally, ecosystem services face significant degradation due to land use and land cover change (LULC) driven by human development. Despite numerous habitat quality assessments, comprehensive studies in high-mountain equatorial region basins remain scarce. This research addresses assessing habitat quality in Ecuador’s sub-basins of the Aguilán and Tabacay Rivers, with projections extending to 2050. This study considered anthropogenic threats and examined two land use change scenarios. The “Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs” (InVEST) model was used for the evaluation. A habitat quality index (HQI) was developed and categorized into five classes. The results showed that in 2018, over 50% of the study area had medium, high, and very high habitat quality levels, partly due to implementing policies, such as Reciprocal Water Agreements, developed by local initiatives. However, future projections suggest a declining trend, particularly in urban and cropland areas, highlighting the need to reinforce proactive policies. The findings of this study contribute to addressing existing gaps in habitat quality research in high-mountain regions, providing key scientific evidence to support conservation strategies, land use planning, and watershed management.

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