Developing an index model for flood risk assessment in the western coastal region of Mazandaran, Iran

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Abstract
This paper represents an index model developed for the assessment of risk caused by river floods. The main purpose of this model is to evaluate the flood risk in the western coastal region of Mazandaran Province/Iran. The model assesses the risk at triple components, i.e. the flood occurrence probability, vulnerability and consequences, through identification and evaluation of effective criteria categorized into seven indexes (environmental, technical, economic, social, depth, population and sensitivity ones) that are involved in all stages of flooding (source, pathway and receptor). The flood risk in the developed model is defined by a dimensionless magnitude called as risk score between 0 and 100 for each zone of the area under assessment by calculating and combining of two newly defined factors: occurrence and vulnerability factor and impact factor. The model was applied in a case study, the Nowshahr flood in 2012. The results showed that: (i) the flood risk zoning was compared with observed data for aspect of the damages, and general agreement between them was obtained; (ii) for urban zones, which surrounded by two rivers, would easily be in critical condition and rescue operations face difficulties; and (iii) it is necessary to review the location of the emergency services, according the flood risk zoning.

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