An analysis of fatalities from forest fires in China, 1951–2018

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Abstract
The frequent occurrence of fatalities from wildfires is an ongoing problem in China, even though great improvements have been achieved in overall wildfire management in recent years. We analysed the occurrence patterns and correlative environments of fatalities from forest fires in China from 1951 to 2018. Changes in fire policies affected changes in the numbers of fires, forest area burned and number of fatalities before and after 1987, after the large Great Black Dragon Fire that burned in the Daxing’anling Mountains in northeastern China. Most fatalities occurred in the southern, southwestern and eastern forest regions of the country where population centres are concentrated, while most of the burned area was distributed in forests of northeast China with fewer population centres. Fatalities were correlated with higher values of fire weather indices, coniferous forests, coniferous and broad-leaved mixed forests, moderate–average slopes (5.1–15°), and primarily small fires of less than 100 ha in area. These results should be a first step to help improve awareness of inherent dangers during wildfires and to assist fire managers and policy-makers in strengthening safety procedures for both professional firefighters and the public to reduce wildfire fatalities in the future.

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