Full vaccination against COVID-19 suppresses SARS-CoV-2 delta variant and spike gene mutation frequencies and generates purifying selection pressure

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Abstract
Public distrust has undermined COVID-19 vaccine acceptance and has become a major public health issue in the battle against SARS-CoV-2 transmission globally. Here we present the first evidence that the vaccination coverage rate is inversely correlated to the mutation frequency of the SARS-CoV-2 delta variant in 16 countries (R2=0.878), strongly indicating that full vaccination against COVID-19 is critical to suppress emergent mutations. We also present a promising tool to forecast new COVID-19 outbreaks. The Tajima’s D test, an evolutionary algorithm, with a threshold value of -2.50 is shown to be an accurate predictor of new outbreaks. We recommend that universal vaccination, as well as mitigation strategies, and genomic surveillance continue to be employed to prevent further viral transmission.