Cost-Optimised Machine Learning Model Comparison for Predictive Maintenance

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Abstract
Predictive maintenance is essential for reducing industrial downtime and costs, yet real-world datasets frequently encounter class imbalance and require cost-sensitive evaluation due to costly misclassification errors. This study utilises the SCANIA Component X dataset to advance predictive maintenance through machine learning, employing seven supervised algorithms, Support Vector Machine, Random Forest, Decision Tree, K-Nearest Neighbours, Multi-Layer Perceptron, XGBoost, and LightGBM, trained on time-series features extracted via a sliding window approach. A bespoke cost-sensitive metric, aligned with SCANIA’s misclassification cost matrix, assesses model performance. Three imbalance mitigation strategies, downsampling, downsampling with SMOTETomek, and manual class weighting, were explored, with downsampling proving most effective. Random Forest and Support Vector Machine models achieved high accuracy and low misclassification costs, whilst a voting ensemble further enhanced cost efficiency. This research emphasises the critical role of cost-aware evaluation and imbalance handling, proposing an ensemble-based framework to improve predictive maintenance in industrial applications

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