Simulation and Correction Study of Solar Irradiance in Guangdong Based on WRF-Solar and Random Forest

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Abstract
To improve solar irradiance simulation accuracy for precise photovoltaic power forecasting, we developed a hybrid framework combining WRF-Solar numerical simulation and random forest (RF) machine learning for a PV plant in Guangdong, China. Weather conditions were objectively classified into clear, intermittent cloudy, and overcast using the Daily Variability Index (DVI) and Daily Clear-sky Index (DCI). We calibrated the WRF-Solar model’s microphysics and radiative transfer schemes via sensitivity tests to optimize overcast-sky performance, then applied RF correction to the simulated irradiance. Results show that RF correction significantly reduces simulation errors for intermittent and overcast conditions, while the original WRF-Solar outperforms the corrected results under clear skies due to RF overfitting.

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