The eastern Baltic cod fishery: a fleet-based management strategy evaluation framework to assess the cod recovery plan of 2008

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Bastardie, F., Nielsen, J. R., and Kraus, G. 2010. The eastern Baltic cod fishery: a fleet-based management strategy evaluation framework to assess the cod recovery plan of 2008. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 67: 71–86. A management strategy evaluation framework was developed for the international Baltic cod fishery to evaluate the performance and robustness of the 2008 multi-annual management plan for the eastern stock. The spatially explicit management evaluation covered two cod recruitment regimes and various fleet adaptation scenarios. The tested management options included total allowable catch control, direct effort control, and closed areas and seasons. The modelled fleet responded to management by misreporting, improving catching power, adapting capacity, and reallocating fishing effort. The model was calibrated with spatially and temporally disaggregated landings and effort data from five countries covering 83% of the total cod catches. The simulations revealed that the management plan is robust and likely to rebuild the stock in the medium term even under low recruitment. Direct effort reduction limited underreporting of catches, but the overall effect was impaired by the increased catching power or spatio-temporal effort reallocation. Closures had a positive effect, protecting part of the population from being caught, but the effect was impaired if there was seasonal effort reallocation. Over the entire 15-year simulation period, all fleets could realize variable but positive profits under all scenarios tested, owing to stock recovery.

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