ctDNA and Recurrence Risk for Adjuvant De-Escalation in HPV-Positive Oropharyngeal Carcinoma

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Abstract
Importance: The De-escalated Adjuvant Radiation Therapy (DART) phase 3 randomized clinical trial (RCT) showed that in patients with human papillomavirus (HPV)−associated oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma, postoperative minimal residual disease (MRD), detected through circulating tumor HPV DNA (ctHPVDNA), was associated with a higher risk of disease progression. When considered along with pathologic factors, postoperative ctHPVDNA assessment may improve patient selection for adjuvant treatment de-escalation; however, more data are needed to demonstrate how it may be used in personalizing treatment intensity.Objective: To determine the association of postoperative MRD status with progression-free survival (PFS) after surgery for HPV-associated oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma.Design, Setting, and Participants: This was a secondary analysis of the DART RCT, which was conducted from October 2016 to August 2020 in multiple sites in the US. Participants from the de-escalated adjuvant radiation therapy group and the standard of care group with available blood specimen data were included. Reports from 3-month posttreatment surveillance visits were used to assess associations and outcomes. Data analyses were performed from March 2023 to March of 2025.Interventions: The DART group received 30 to 36 Gy of radiation therapy in 1.5 to 1.8 Gy twice daily, plus docetaxel, 15 mg/m2, on days 1 and 8. The standard of care group received 60 Gy with or without weekly cisplatin, 40 mg/m2.Main Outcome and Measure: PFS.Results: The analysis included 140 patients (mean [SD] age, 59.1 [8.4] years; 12 [8.6%] females and 128 [91.4%] males; 97 [69.3%] with no smoking history); characteristics were similar to the overall DART RCT population. Of these, 17 patients (12.1%) had postoperative MRD (13 of 96 [13.5%] receiving DART and 4 of 44 [9.1%] receiving standard of care). For all patients, postoperative MRD positivity was strongly associated with worsened PFS at 24 months (MRD positivity, 69.5%; MRD negativity, 95.9%; hazard ratio [HR], 0.19; 95% CI, 0.06-0.59). MRD positivity was associated with PFS when evaluating only those patients in the DART group, where 24-month PFS was 68.4% compared to 92.6% for MRD-negative patients (HR, 0.28; 95% CI, 0.08-0.93). Three months after completion of all treatment, 8 of 117 patients (6.8%) had detectable ctHPVDNA, whereas 109 of 117 (93.2%) did not, and detection was highly associated with PFS (HR, 20.48; 95% CI, 6.91-60.67).Conclusions and Relevance: This secondary analysis of the DART RCT found that patients with detectable ctHPVDNA after surgery had a higher risk of disease progression. When added to the pathologic factors considered, ctHPVDNA assessment may improve selection of patients for treatment de-escalation. In addition, the 3-month posttreatment time point, early in surveillance, may identify a sizable portion of patients with progression and may guide intervention and surveillance after surgery for HPV-associated oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma.Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02908477

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