Distribution choice for the assessment of design rainfall for the city of London (Ontario, Canada) under climate change

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Abstract
With the effect of global climate change the rainfall intensity is changing, and in many places it is drastically increasing. The use of intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves based on historic rainfall data might, therefore, underestimate the risk associated with the design and assessment of drainage systems. The theoretical probability distribution function used in the establishment of IDF curves based on historical observations might need to be different for the future conditions. The Gumbel (EV1) distribution is the currently recommended distribution for use in Canada and the EV1 and the Log-Pearson type 3 (LP3) are routinely used in the US. This study investigates potential utility of the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution for use in climate change impact studies by the City of London that is located in the Upper Thames River Basin. All results point that GEV seems to be the best choice for the use with the Upper Thames River Basin data. We would like to use results of this study and open the discussion on the choice of most appropriate distribution for the development of IDF curves under changing climate conditions in Canada.

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