Compound and heterogeneous relationships between climate extremes and global net migration

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Abstract
Climate extremes are increasingly disrupting livelihoods and shaping patterns of human mobility. Their longer-term and compounding relationships with migration remain understudied, particularly at the subnational scale. In this study, by analysing global subnational net migration data, we show that associations between climate extremes and migration vary by hazard type, timing, consecutive events, income level and pre-existing migration context. Floods are associated with decreased net migration across contexts, with effects lasting several years and appearing stronger in lower-income areas. Droughts, by contrast, show associations with net migration primarily in higher-income settings, with effects generally short-term. Tropical cyclones correspond to decreased net migration primarily in lower-income areas, with effects lasting over several years. For compound exposure, droughts show the clearest patterns, with prolonged exposure linked to reduced migration inflows in population-attracting areas. These results highlight how climate extremes interact with local socioeconomic contexts to shape mobility.

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