Characterization and Estimation of Evaporation Duct Strength Under Tropical Cyclone Conditions Using Stacking Ensemble Learning

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Abstract
Tropospheric evaporation ducts can trap radio waves within a refractive layer, which may guide signals above 1 GHz, enabling beyond-line-of-sight transmission. This makes duct-assisted propagation attractive for maritime communications. The marine environment is characterized by complex hydrometeorological variability and frequent extremes, particularly tropical cyclones, which can perturb duct properties and degrade link reliability. This study develops a multivariate cyclone-aware nonlinear regression framework (CNRF) to estimate contemporaneous evaporation duct strength (EDS) by integrating high-resolution dropsonde observations with tropical-cyclone descriptors from the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS). The framework uses CatBoost, natural-gradient boosting (NGBoost), and a multilayer perceptron (MLP) as base learners, with a random forest (RF) serving as the second-stage nonlinear fusion model. Rather than relying solely on bulk physical parameterization, the framework aims to represent the nonlinear influence of tropical cyclone-related environmental factors on duct strength. Evaluated over 1996–2024, the CNRF attains a test-set R2 of 0.791 and a root mean square error (RMSE) of 5.350 M-unit, corresponding to a 23.5% improvement in RMSE over the Naval Postgraduate School (NPS) numerical model. For Hurricane Fiona (2022), the model achieves an RMSE of 6.260 M-unit, and the inclusion of tropical cyclone descriptors improves RMSE by approximately 17.0% relative to a model that excludes tropical cyclone information. The proposed framework facilitates quantitative assessment of extreme-weather-driven duct variability and supports robust design and operation of duct-enabled maritime communication systems.
Funding Information
  • National Natural Science Foundation of China (62031008)

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