Trend analysis of disability adjusted life years due to cardiovascular diseases: results from the global burden of disease study 2019

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Abstract
Background: Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are the number one cause of global mortality representing about one third of all deaths across the world. The objective of the present study was to model the global trend in disability-adjusted life years (DALY) and its components due to CVD over the past three decades. We also aimed to evaluate the longitudinal relationship between CVD DALY and Human Development Index (HDI) in this period of time. Methods: The age-standardized rates of years lost due to disability (YLD), years of life lost (YLL) and DALY were extracted for cardiovascular diseases from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019 in years 1990 to 2019. Additionally, the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) database was used to retrieve HDI values for all world countries at the same period time. The trend analysis was performed using the joinpoint regression model. Results: The obtained revealed a significant downward trend for DALY and its components with the average annual percent change of − 1.0, − 0.3 and − 1.1 per 100,000 population, respectively for DALY, YLD and YLL. We also found that countries with high/very high levels of HDI have remarkably experienced steeper declining slope of trend than those in lower levels of HDI over the study period. Conclusions: Although the observed decreasing trend of CVD burden is a hopeful message for all world countries, the considerable gap in slope of trend between richer and poorer parts of the world is a serious alarm for health policy makers. Regarding this, there is an urgent need to put more efforts on implementing preventive programs, improving the level of patients’ care and providing efficient treatment, especially in regions with lower levels of HDI.

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