Financial and Macroeconomic Indicators of Recession Risk
- 1 June 2022
- journal article
- research article
- Published by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in FEDS Notes
- No. 6/21/2022
Abstract
Recessions impose sizable hardship, with large increases in the unemployment rate and related dislocations. In addition, recessions can lead to large shifts in financial markets. As a result, economists and financial market professionals have considered prediction models to assess the probability of a recession.Keywords
All Related Versions
This publication has 9 references indexed in Scilit:
- (Don't Fear) The Yield Curve, RepriseFEDS Notes, 2022
- A Labor Market View on the Risks of a U.S. Hard LandingSSRN Electronic Journal, 2022
- Unemployment RiskJournal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2021
- The Near-Term Forward Yield Spread as a Leading Indicator: A Less Distorted MirrorCFA Magazine, 2019
- Unemployment RiskFinance and Economics Discussion Series, 2018
- Recession Risk and the Excess Bond PremiumFEDS Notes, 2016
- Predicting Recessions with Leading Indicators: Model Averaging and Selection over the Business CycleJournal of Forecasting, 2015
- Credit Spreads as Predictors of Real-Time Economic Activity: A Bayesian Model-Averaging ApproachReview of Economics and Statistics, 2013
- Does Monetary Policy Matter? A New Test in the Spirit of Friedman and SchwartzNBER Macroeconomics Annual, 1989