Analysis of the Effect of the Fengyun-3D Satellite Microwave Humidity Sounder (MWHS-II) Data Assimilation on Typhoon “YAGI” Forecast
- 1 January 2025
- journal article
- Published by National Space Science Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences in Chinese Journal of Space Science
- Vol. 45 (2) , 364-19
Abstract
2411号台风“摩羯”于2024年9月登陆中国东南沿海地区, 风云三号D星(FY-3D)微波湿度计(MWHS-II)成功监测到该台风. 本研究在天气研究与预报模式数据同化系统(Weather Research and Forecasting model Data Assimilation system, WRFDA)中构建了晴空条件下FY-3D MWHS-II资料三维变分同化框架, 通过设置118 GHz, 183 GHz单频段以及双频段联合同化及预报试验方案, 系统评估了微波资料同化对台风“摩羯”的强度、路径及降水预报效果. 试验表明, 同化FY-3D MWHS-II资料有效提升了分析场质量, 对台风强度、路径和降水的预报也产生了积极影响. 台风预报方面, 同化118 GHz和183 GHz通道对台风路径预报分别改进了17.18%和13.39%, 洋面区域的183 GHz同化更使得路径预报改进率达到14.59%; 降水预报方面, MWHS-II资料同化显著提升初期24 h内中小雨量级(50 mm)预报表现出独特优势; 183 GHz通道的改进效应在24 h后逐步显现, 而双频段联合同化方案展现出综合优势, 各量级降水的降水分数技能得分(Fractions Skill Scores, FSS)相比控制试验提升显著. FY-3D MWHS-II的118 GHz和183 GHz频段在不同预报要素上的差异化改进效果, 突显了FY-3D MWHS-II资料在区域台风数值预报中的独特应用价值及应用潜力.Keywords
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