Joint influence of climate warming and surface transformation on the thermal condition of permafrost in the anthropogenically disturbed area of the Norilsk industrial region: scenario assessment until 2060

Authors:
Open Access
Publisher website
Google Scholar
Abstract
The subject of the research is the change in temperature and water-phase state of permafrost rocks in the technogenically disturbed area of the Norilsk industrial region until 2060. The initial state of 11 sections to a depth of 10–20 meters was determined based on the thermometry data from 2023. Below the observation interval, the temperature profiles were retrospectively extended to a depth of 125.36–126.03 meters. For 2024–2025, actual temperature and precipitation data from the Norilsk station were used. Starting from 2026, the repetition of climatology and three CMIP6 trajectories were considered. For the warmest trajectory SSP5-8.5, additional comparisons were made regarding snow clearance, natural and increased snow accumulation, as well as the removal, preservation, and development of the aboveground part of the vegetation cover. Temperature, the position of the roof and bottom of the permafrost, the thickness of the frozen layer, water reserve, and ice content were assessed. A coupled heat and moisture transfer scheme with daily updates of the water state was applied. Factors such as unfrozen water, infiltration, hydraulic redistribution, and parameterized migration-segregation of ice release were taken into account. Calculations were compared that differed only by the value of one factor. By 2060, under SSP5-8.5, relative to the state at the end of 2024, the temperature at depths of 2, 5, and 10 meters increased by 1.81 °C, 1.03 °C, and 0.62 °C, respectively. The phase roof deepened by 2.41 meters, and the thickness of the frozen layer in ten sections decreased by 2.09 meters, with the ice reserve reducing by 9.6%. Relative to natural snow accumulation, snow clearance lowered the temperature at 2 meters by 1.50 °C and raised the roof by 2.37 meters; increased snow accumulation enhanced warming. For the slag heap area, this factor-based assessment of climate, snow, and vegetation is conducted for the first time. Under principle I, the results characterize the stability of the frozen state and the role of snow accumulation; under principle II, they address the depth and rate of thawing and provide phase initial data for calculating deformations.

This publication has 28 references indexed in Scilit: