Coevolution and the Effects of Climate Change on Interacting Species

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Abstract
Recent studies suggest that environmental changes may tip the balance between interacting species, leading to the extinction of one or more species. While it is recognized that evolution will play a role in determining how environmental changes directly affect species, the interactions among species force us to consider the coevolutionary responses of species to environmental changes. We use simple models of competition, predation, and mutualism to organize and synthesize the ways coevolution modifies species interactions when climatic changes favor one species over another. In cases where species have conflicting interests (i.e., selection for increased interspecific interaction strength on one species is detrimental to the other), we show that coevolution reduces the effects of climate change, leading to smaller changes in abundances and reduced chances of extinction. Conversely, when species have nonconflicting interests (i.e., selection for increased interspecific interaction strength on one species benefits the other), coevolution increases the effects of climate change. Coevolution sets up feedback loops that either dampen or amplify the effect of environmental change on species abundances depending on whether coevolution has conflicting or nonconflicting effects on species interactions. Thus, gaining a better understanding of the coevolutionary processes between interacting species is critical for understanding how communities respond to a changing climate. We suggest experimental methods to determine which types of coevolution (conflicting or nonconflicting) drive species interactions, which should lead to better understanding of the effects of coevolution on species adaptation. Conducting these experiments across environmental gradients will test our predictions of the effects of environmental change and coevolution on ecological communities. Recent studies suggest that environmental changes may tip the balance between species that interact with each other, leading to the extinction of one or more species. While it is recognized that evolution will alter the way environmental changes directly affect individual species, the interactions between species force us to also consider the evolution of species interactions themselves. We use simple models of competition, predation, and mutualism to evaluate the effect of coevolution on the abundance of interacting species when climatic changes favor one species over another. In cases where the species have conflicting interests (i.e., where selection on one species for increased strength of the interaction is detrimental to the other, such as an organism becoming more aggressive towards competitors), we show that coevolution reduces the effects of climate change, leading to smaller changes in abundances and reduced chances of extinction. Conversely, when the species have nonconflicting interests (i.e., where selection for increased interaction strength on one species benefits the other, such as an organism avoiding competition with other species), coevolution increases the effects of climate change. Thus, gaining a better understanding of the nature of the coevolution between interacting species is critical for understanding how communities respond to a changing climate.

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