Probability-Based Ship Structural Safety Analysis

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Abstract
This paper provides a demonstration on the use of probability-based ship structural safety analysis and enumerates the benefits in comparison with traditional methods. Reliability techniques are developed to determine safety levels of existing vessels, taking into consideration uncertainties in loads, strength and calculation procedures. Ultimate, serviceability and fatigue limit states are developed and applied to an existing tanker. The corresponding load models are examined and, in some instances, further developed. Safety indices associated with yielding, buckling, and fatigue are calculated. Conclusions are drawn regarding the benefits and drawbacks of using probability-based ship safety analysis. This paper provides a demonstration on the use of probability-based ship structural safety analysis and enumerates the benefits in comparison with traditional methods. Reliability techniques are developed to determine safety levels of existing vessels, taking into consideration uncertainties in loads, strength and calculation procedures. Ultimate, serviceability and fatigue limit states are developed and applied to an existing tanker. The corresponding load models are examined and, in some instances, further developed. Safety indices associated with yielding, buckling, and fatigue are calculated. Conclusions are drawn regarding the benefits and drawbacks of using probability-based ship safety analysis.