Personalizing Maintenance Rituximab in Follicular Lymphoma: A Machine Learning Framework for Risk-Benefit Optimization

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Abstract
Background: While maintenance rituximab therapy (MT) for follicular lymphoma improves progression-free survival, individual benefit varies, creating a critical need to avoid overtreatment and its associated burdens. Methods: We developed a double machine learning framework using a retrospective 404-patient cohort to estimate the individualized treatment effect of MT on the risk of disease progression within 24 months. Results: Our model revealed heterogeneity in treatment benefit, successfully distinguishing patients most likely to benefit from those who are not. A retrospective simulated application identified a “low-risk, low-benefit” subgroup that might potentially forgo MT. Furthermore, aligning historical clinical decisions with our model’s recommendations was associated with a lower progression rate compared to nonalignment (14.8% vs. 38.0%). Extensive sensitivity analyses confirmed the robustness of this treatment heterogeneity against potential unmeasured confounding and temporal practice shifts. Conclusions: Supported by an updated interactive clinical decision tool, this data-driven framework provides a robust strategy to personalize MT by separating prognostic risk from predictive benefit. It serves as a hypothesis-generating template to guide future prospective risk-adapted trials and reduce unnecessary treatment in oncology.

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