System Modeling and Risk Analysis of the Sichuan–Tibet Railway Project

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Abstract
The severe geological and environmental conditions along the Sichuan–Tibet railway easily lead to unfavorable events that place construction safety at risk. To comprehensively identify the risks associated with this project, this paper proposes a novel model-based systems engineering (MBSE) method that employs Department of Defense architecture framework (DoDAF) artifacts. In this method, system modeling is applied to risk management, and model analysis is performed to identify the risks in a project and their related factors. This method is closely related to the engineering process and can be applied to all stages of the entire project life cycle. The Jinjiguan No. 2 tunnel project was taken as a case study to demonstrate the application of this method. The task model, structure view, and activity view of this project were established using Systems Modeling Language (SysML). By analyzing the system behavior deviations that emerged during the engineering activities, the potential major risk events in tunnel construction, including collapse, water gushing, and explosions, were identified. The status and behavior of system components were examined from various perspectives to identify the risk factors that may emerge during tunnel construction. The results showed that the proposed method can efficiently develop system models, capture the structure and behavior of a railway engineering system, and accurately identify the risks faced by the system.

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