Wildfire Impact and Forest Flux in Penjween, Iraq: A Remote Sensing-Based Deforestation Assessment (2010–2020)

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Abstract
Increased severity of environmental issues such as climate change, land use, and frequency of wildfires has started causing concerns on a global scale. This research is intended to identify forest wildfire, deforestation, and the carbon exchange process in the Penjween District of the Sulaymaniyah Governorate in Northern Iraq using Remote Sensing Technologies. Three models were employed to evaluate forest cover changes from 2010 to 2020, including the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Radar Vegetation Index (RVI), and satellite-based fire alert data. Through NDVI analysis, a notable change in land cover was observed, where there was a decline of ‘barren land’ from 500,000 hectares in 2010 to < 200,000 hectares by 2018, while the shrub and grassland areas increased from 400,000 to 650,000 hectares. The data obtained through RVI showed a strong signal of vegetation (0.9) in Spring 2015. This was followed by declining value trends that RVI data represented. These trends indicated the presence of droughts, changes in land use, and the frequency of land burns. An assessment of burnt areas using MODIS data revealed increased wildfire activity from 2014. Almost two hundred fire incidents had been observed by the year 2020 fires were recorded. July accounted for 113,962 hectares burned. Spatial fire frequency maps showed chronic fire zones, which are likely tied to humans and arid conditions. In any case, the Penjween forests continue to act as a net carbon sink. They release 5.68 ktCO₂e/year but are absorbing 1.03 ktCO₂e/year of the carbon dioxide from the atmosphere