A habitat model to aid the conservation of crested caracaras

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Abstract
Northern crested caracaras (Caracara cheriway) in south‐central Florida are threatened by habitat loss, which is ongoing at local and regional scales. A tool capable of predicting effects of habitat loss on caracaras, and whose predictions can inform conservation strategies at multiple scales is imperative. We coupled a resource selection function‐based habitat model with a geographic information system to predict the effects on the distribution of caracara nesting habitat as a result of a planned conversion of 143 km2 of agricultural land to sugarcane (local scale), and as a result of projected urbanization through 2060 (regional scale). Our model predicted a 100% decrease in the area classified as having a high or the highest relative probability of caracara nesting habitat (129.39 km2, or 13 average caracara home range equivalents) following completion of the local‐scale project, and a 34.9% decrease following urbanization projected by 2060 (3,641.52 km2, or 366 average caracara home range equivalents). Our model can help direct compensatory mitigation at the local scale by predicting the amount of habitat likely to be lost because of land conversion at project sites. Predictions from the model also identify 3 conservation areas within the species range in Florida that collectively contain 6,140 km2 and would aid in region‐wide conservation of this threatened raptor. © 2017 The Wildlife Society.
Funding Information
  • Wildlife Foundation of Florida

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