Connecting Current and Future Dual Active Galactic Nucleus Searches to LISA and Pulsar Timing Array Gravitational-wave Detections

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Abstract
Dual active galactic nuclei (DAGN) mark the observable stage of massive black hole (MBH) pairing during galaxy mergers and are the progenitors of the MBH binaries that generate low-frequency gravitational waves. Using the large-volume ASTRID cosmological simulation, we construct mock DAGN catalogs tailored to the selection functions of current (COSMOS-Web and DESI) and forthcoming (Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope (Roman) and Lynx X-ray Observatory (Lynx)) surveys, enabling direct comparisons between simulations and observations. With realistic observational selections, ASTRID reproduces the observed dual fractions, projected separations, and host-galaxy properties across redshifts. We predict a substantial population of small-separation ( 1, as the environments most likely to host imminent MBH binaries. These results establish a unified cosmological framework connecting DAGN demographics, MBH binary evolution, and gravitational-wave sources, while identifying high-priority targets for coordinated electromagnetic and multimessenger observations in the coming decade.
Funding Information
  • National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NNH24ZDA001N)
  • Schmidt Sciences (NA)
  • National Aeronautics and Space Administration (ATP-80NSSC20K0519)
  • National Science Foundation (PHY-2020295)
  • National Aeronautics and Space Administration (ATP-80NSSC22K1897)

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