Sexual selection does not predict long-term population trends in birds

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Abstract
Sexual selection is a major evolutionary force, yet its demographic consequences remain unclear. While experimental studies often report positive effects of sexual selection on traits linked to population performance, comparative studies often find null or negative associations with population persistence. One explanation for this discrepancy is that the demographic consequences of sexual selection depend on ecological context, particularly variation in mortality and fecundity. Here, we used six decades of abundance data and test whether sexual selection predicts population trends across 738 bird species from Europe and North America. We quantify sexual selection using complementary proxies capturing different components of sexual selection: mating system, sexual dichromatism, sexual size dimorphism and relative testes mass. We further assess whether the effect of sexual selection in population trends is mediated by mortality and fecundity. Across all proxies, we found no evidence that sexual selection is associated with population trends. This result is consistent across continents and robust to variation in mortality and fecundity. Our findings suggest that, despite its central role in shaping phenotypic evolution, sexual selection does not translate into consistent effects on long-term population trends at macroecological scales. More broadly, these results highlight a potential disconnect between evolutionary processes and population dynamics.
Funding Information
  • Vetenskapsrådet (2025-03964)
  • Natural Environment Research Council Independent Research Fellowship (NE/T01105X/1)
  • Agence Nationale de la Recherche (ANR-25-CE02-1229)

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