Predictors of Favorable Neurologic Outcomes in a Territory-First Extracorporeal Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation Program

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Abstract
Extracorporeal cardiopulmonary resuscitation (ECPR) is an advanced resuscitation method that has been associated with better outcomes after cardiac arrest compared with conventional cardiopulmonary resuscitation. This is a retrospective analysis of all patients who received ECPR for cardiac arrest in Hong Kong’s first ECPR program from 2012 to 2020. The primary outcome was favorable neurologic outcome at 3 months. A new risk prediction model was developed and its performance was compared with published risk scores. One-hundred two patients received ECPR and 19 (18.6%) patients survived with favorable neurologic outcome. Having a shockable rhythm was the strongest predictor of favorable neurologic outcome in multivariate analysis (odds ratio, 9.64; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.49 to 62.30; P = 0.017). We developed a simple model with three parameters for the prediction of favorable neurologic outcomes – presence of shockable rhythm, mean arterial pressure after extracorporeal membrane oxygenation, and the Acute Physiology And Chronic Health Evaluation IV score, with an area under receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.85 (95% CI, 0.77 to 0.94). In Hong Kong’s first ECPR program, 18.6% patients survived with favorable neurologic outcomes, and having a shockable rhythm at presentation was the strongest predictor. Risk scores are useful in predicting important patient outcomes and should be included in clinical decision-making for patients who received ECPR.

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