Analysis of land-use scenarios for urban sustainable development: a case study of Lijiang City

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Abstract
A scientific approach to urban planning is required to ensure environmental protection and ecological sustainability. This paper presents a range of urban land-use scenarios and their implications for urban development and economic demand in the Old Town of Lijiang. Using geographic information system (GIS) and questionnaire analysis, three future urban planning scenarios were created based on data and storylines for the Lijiang region. In all scenarios, urban growth arises from population increase due to tourism and economic change. However, the spatial patterns differ due to varying assumptions about urban development processes or purposes. The modelling results are successfully illustrated in the scope of possible land-use scenarios for the future and provide useful input for starting discussions on future urban development planning.

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