Near real-time data on the human neutralizing antibody landscape to influenza virus as of early 2026 to inform vaccine-strain selection

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Abstract
Twice each year, a decision is made on whether to update the strains included in the seasonal influenza vaccine to better match the most recent circulating viral strains. To characterize the antigenic properties of current seasonal influenza A strains to inform the upcoming decision about which strains to include in the 2026–7 Northern Hemisphere vaccine, here we perform high-throughput sequencing–based neutralization assays using a library of 57 H3N2 and 34 H1N1 influenza hemagglutinins reflecting the circulating diversity of strains in late 2025 to early 2026. We assay this library against 302 human sera collected in late 2025. The resulting data set encompasses 27 409 titres and provides a near real-time portrait of the human neutralizing antibody landscape against influenza virus. We find that many human sera have lower titres against the K subclade of H3N2 and the D.3.1.1 subclade of H1N1; these subclades have recently become dominant among their respective subtypes. Our measurements also reveal variability in titres to different subvariants within the K subclade of H3N2, with titres especially low to subclade K strains with additional mutations in antigenic regions D and E. We make all our data and accompanying visualizations publicly available to enable their use in vaccine-strain selection and analyses of influenza evolution and immunity.

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