Assessment of Future Water Demand for Resilient Water Allocation under Socioeconomic and Climate Change Scenarios, a Case of Ghba Subbasin, Northern Ethiopia

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Abstract
The impact of climate change on water resources is a global issue with significant regional implications. The Ghba subbasin has experienced a higher socioeconomic change. In this paper, we assess the potential impact of climate change and human activity on water supply and demand in the Ghba subbasin of Ethiopia. We then evaluate the effectiveness of regional adaptation strategies for water supply management under these conditions. To do this, we use the statistical downscaling model (SDSM) and the water assessment and planning tool (WEAP) to simulate and analyse future water conditions. After running the model through a calibration and validation process, minimum (Tmin) and maximum (Tmax) temperatures, water demand and unmet water demand were projected for 2100 horizon, using different climate change scenarios. The results showed that the model's performance, calibration, and validation were all satisfactory. The analysis showed that, under A2 and B2 emission scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the mean precipitation will increase by 31% and 26%, respectively. The projected mean Tmax and Tmin will be warmer than the baseline period, with Tmax increasing by 1.5°C (A2) and 1.3°C (B2), and Tmin by 1.7°C (A2) and 1.5°C (B2) by 2100. The results also illustrate that in all scenarios, water consumption would rise and that this need will not be satisfied, and the pressure on water resources will intensify, resulting in a water shortage. The findings show that future water demand under the influence of climate change is projected to exceed 210 million cubic meters (MCM) by 2100. The findings show that while the evaluations of the recommended adaption techniques are effective, they are not enough to guarantee the Ghba subbasin's water sustainability.

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