Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Ilex macrocarpa Distribution Under Future Climate Scenarios: Implications for Conservation Planning

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Abstract
Identifying ecological distribution responses to climate change is pivotal for preserving biodiversity. Ilex macrocarpa, a deciduous tree of the Aquifoliaceae family, has considerable ecological and medicinal benefits. This study investigated the impact of climate change on the potential distribution of I. macrocarpa using MaxEnt modeling and GIS analysis. We analyzed 562 occurrence records against 19 bioclimatic variables, subsequently refined to 7 key predictors through Pearson correlation analysis (|r| ≤ 0.75). The MaxEnt model demonstrated high predictive accuracy (AUC = 0.902 ± 0.010). Annual precipitation (67.9% contribution) and the minimum temperature of the coldest month (18.4% contribution) emerged as the primary determinants of I. macrocarpa distribution. Currently, suitable habitats occupy 252.97 × 104 km2 (26.35%) of the total land area of China, with highly suitable areas (72.82 × 104 km2) predominantly found in southern China. Under future scenarios, substantial distribution shifts are projected: SSP126 shows a 21.7% reduction in suitable area by 2050, followed by a 9.1% recovery by 2090; SSP245 indicates a 13.4% reduction by 2050 with minimal subsequent change; and SSP585 demonstrates the most severe impact, with a 32.0% reduction by 2090. Habitat centroid analysis reveals significant northeastward shifts under SSP126 (116.23 km by 2090), variable movements under SSP245, and southwestern displacement under SSP585 (143.23 km by 2090). These findings suggest differential responses across climate scenarios, with implications for conservation planning and management strategies.
Funding Information
  • Fundamental Research Funds for the Guizhou Provincial Science and Technology Projects (QKHJC-ZK [2022] YB335, CAFYBB2023ZA009-03, 2024YB002, 2024BSKQ003)
  • Fundamental Research Funds for Central Non-profit Research Institutes (QKHJC-ZK [2022] YB335, CAFYBB2023ZA009-03, 2024YB002, 2024BSKQ003)
  • Guizhou Education University Scientific Research Fund Project (QKHJC-ZK [2022] YB335, CAFYBB2023ZA009-03, 2024YB002, 2024BSKQ003)

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