The Past, Present, and Future of Economic Growth

Author:
  • DRDani Rodrik
    Dani Rodrik
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Abstract
Economic growth is a precondition for the improvement of living standards and lifetime possibilities for the “average” citizen of the developing world. Can recent performance be sustained into the future, decisively reversing the “great divergence” that has split the world into rich and poor countries since the nineteenth century? Developing countries will face stronger headwinds in the decades ahead, both because the global economy is likely to be significantly less buoyant than in recent decades and because technological changes are rendering manufacturing more capital- and skill-intensive. Desirable policies will continue to share features that have served successful countries well in the past, but growth strategies will differ in their emphasis. Ultimately, growth will depend primarily on what happens at home. The challenge is therefore to design an architecture that respects the domestic priorities of individual countries while ensuring that major cross-border spillovers and global public goods are addressed.