Multiscale Drought Assessment in Kien Giang Province, Vietnam: Comparing MSPI and MSPEI for Monitoring in a Coastal Mekong Delta Setting

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Abstract
Drought is a recurrent hazard in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD), with major implications for agriculture, water resources, and rural livelihoods. This study assesses drought variability in Kien Giang Province, Vietnam, from 1992 to 2024 using two multiscale indicators: the Multivariate Standardized Precipitation Index (MSPI) and the Multivariate Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (MSPEI). Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was applied to Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)- and Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI)-based time series spanning multiple accumulation periods (3–48 months) to derive integrated drought signals and to reduce redundancy across timescales. The results show that the first principal component (PC1) captured a high proportion of total variance across stations, indicating strong coherence in drought dynamics across the province. Both MSPI and MSPEI successfully identified major historical drought episodes, particularly the severe events of 2004–2005 and 2015–2016. However, the two indices differed in their temporal behaviour: MSPI responded more directly to precipitation deficits, whereas MSPEI showed slower post-drought recovery in recent years, suggesting greater sensitivity to evaporative demand and climatic water-balance stress. These differences indicate that evapotranspiration-sensitive indices may provide added analytical value in warming coastal environments. Overall, the combined multiscale framework offers a robust basis for drought monitoring, comparative assessment, and water-resource planning in Kien Giang and other drought-prone coastal delta settings.

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