Developing a Simple Electricity Consumption Prediction Formula for the Pre-Introduction Prediction for Electric Buses

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Abstract
This study aims to develop a theoretical formula to help bus operators easily predict electricity consumption while introducing a certain type of electric bus on a predetermined route. The formula requires vehicle-side information (such as air resistance coefficient, rolling resistance coefficient, vehicle weight, powertrain efficiency, kinetic energy recovery rate, auxiliary equipment electricity consumption, and other vehicle-related data) for construction and road-/operation-side information (such as average driving speed, number of starts and stops, road gradients, and other road-/operation-related data) for prediction. First, herein, as a basic study to construct the theoretical formula, a developed electric bus and its vehicle electricity consumption simulator are employed. We then perform a comparative analysis considering the comparison of loss between the actual operation on public roads and the assumed constant velocity when running on flat roads. Next, we develop theoretical equations for the generalization of velocity and gradient changes and simplified modeling of electricity consumption prediction. Considering the burden of information collection on operators, we categorize it into three stages. In this paper, we first organize the minimum necessary road-/operation-side information (route/operational indicators). Next, we propose a theoretical formula for electricity consumption prediction constructed based on vehicle-side information. Finally, we validate the validity and accuracy of the constructed formula using electric buses and their on-road operational data that we developed earlier. The verification results showed that, after obtaining vehicle-side and road-/operation-side information, the theoretical formula constructed in this study achieved an electricity consumption prediction with an average error of 6% (high-accuracy method). This result demonstrates the practicality of using the theoretical formula to predict the electricity consumption/range of electric buses operating on specific routes.
Funding Information
  • Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (JPMEERF20201G01)

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