The Prognosis for Seizure Control in Newly Diagnosed Epilepsy

Authors:
  • RERobert D. C. Elwes
    Robert D. C. Elwes
  • AJAnthony L. Johnson
    Anthony L. Johnson
  • SSSimon D. Shorvon
    Simon D. Shorvon
  • EREdward H. Reynolds
    Edward H. Reynolds
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Abstract
We assessed the prognosis for seizure control in 106 patients who were referred to an adult neurology clinic with previously untreated tonic-clonic, partial, or mixed seizures and were followed prospectively for a median of 66 months (range, 6 to 96). Twenty-six patients remained completely free of seizures for as long as they were followed. Actuarial analysis showed that 35 per cent of patients could be expected to enter a seizure-free period of at least two years at the start of treatment, 73 per cent would have had a two-year seizure-free period at the end of four years, and 82 per cent would have had a two-year seizure-free period at the end of eight years. Of 79 patients whose seizures were completely controlled for at least two years, 51 subsequently remained seizure-free. If seizures continued for up to two years after the start of treatment, the probability of subsequent seizure control fell by half. The presence of partial seizures; a high frequency of tonic–clonic seizures before treatment; a neurologic, social, or psychiatric handicap; and a family history of epilepsy each indicated a worse prognosis.

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