A method to predict the impact of regulatory variants from DNA sequence

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Abstract
Michael Beer and colleagues report a metric based on a regulatory region annotation method, gkm-SVM, and use this to predict the effects of regulatory variants from sequencing and DNase I–hypersensitive site data. They apply their method to autoimmune disease GWAS data and report several new predictions for causal SNPs. Most variants implicated in common human disease by genome-wide association studies (GWAS) lie in noncoding sequence intervals. Despite the suggestion that regulatory element disruption represents a common theme, identifying causal risk variants within implicated genomic regions remains a major challenge. Here we present a new sequence-based computational method to predict the effect of regulatory variation, using a classifier (gkm-SVM) that encodes cell type–specific regulatory sequence vocabularies. The induced change in the gkm-SVM score, deltaSVM, quantifies the effect of variants. We show that deltaSVM accurately predicts the impact of SNPs on DNase I sensitivity in their native genomic contexts and accurately predicts the results of dense mutagenesis of several enhancers in reporter assays. Previously validated GWAS SNPs yield large deltaSVM scores, and we predict new risk-conferring SNPs for several autoimmune diseases. Thus, deltaSVM provides a powerful computational approach to systematically identify functional regulatory variants.

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