Natural disasters and missing children

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Abstract
Using an exogenous measure of natural disasters based on physical intensities, I examine their impact on child mortality. I find that children, mostly, in poor countries are affected — a one standard deviation increase in the natural disaster index leads to an additional 6.77 deaths per 1000 live births in the disaster year. The impact is long lasting, extending beyond the disaster year. I provide suggestive evidence of the potential mechanisms driving these effects, namely, lower GDP and vaccination rates among children, along with an increased maternal mortality and disease incidence in low‐income countries due to disasters. Using an endogenous measure of disasters based on damage records from insurance data leads to severe underestimation of the disaster impact. The results are robust to the use of mortality rates from multiple sources, different functional forms, and an extensive dynamic panel specification as well as various other tests.

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