Pre-Emption of Affliction Severity Using HRV Measurements from a Smart Wearable; Case-Study on SARS-Cov-2 Symptoms

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Abstract
Smart wristbands and watches have become an important accessory to fitness, but their application to healthcare is still in a fledgling state. Their long-term wear facilitates extensive data collection and evolving sensitivity of smart wristbands allows them to read various body vitals. In this paper, we hypothesized the use of heart rate variability (HRV) measurements to drive an algorithm that can pre-empt the onset or worsening of an affliction. Due to its significance during the time of the study, SARS-Cov-2 was taken as the case study, and a hidden Markov model (HMM) was trained over its observed symptoms. The data used for the analysis was the outcome of a study hosted by Welltory. It involved the collection of SAR-Cov-2 symptoms and reading of body vitals using Apple Watch, Fitbit, and Garmin smart bands. The internal states of the HMM were made up of the absence and presence of a consistent decline in standard deviation of NN intervals (SSDN), the root mean square of the successive differences (rMSSD) in R-R intervals, and low frequency (LF), high frequency (HF), and very low frequency (VLF) components of the HRV measurements. The emission probabilities of the trained HMM instance confirmed that the onset or worsening of the symptoms had a higher probability if the HRV components displayed a consistent decline state. The results were further confirmed through the generation of probable hidden states sequences using the Viterbi algorithm. The ability to pre-empt the exigent state of an affliction would not only lower the chances of complications and mortality but may also help in curbing its spread through intelligence-backed decisions.

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