The regeneration of balsam fir stands in their northern abundance limit is more related to their seed sources and soil types than the climate

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Abstract
To explain the transition between the southern mixedwood and the northern coniferous bioclimatic domains that are dominated, respectively, by balsam fir (Abies balsamea (L.) Mill.) and black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P.), 59 sites were selected throughout the two bioclimatic domains. The regeneration (seedling abundance) and mortality (difference between seedlings and saplings) of balsam fir seedlings were compared within and between bioclimatic domains. We also determined the soil types (clay and till), summer growing degree-days above 5 °C (GDD_5), and total summer precipitation (PP_MA). Balsam fir regeneration was strongly linked to parental trees and was higher in the mixedwood bioclimatic domain than in the coniferous domain, with higher regeneration occurring on till than on clay soils. Mortality was higher on till than on clay soils due to competition between balsam fir seedlings, with other species having either no effect or decreasing mortality. Unlike PP_MA, GDD_5 positively influenced balsam fir regeneration. The dynamics of balsam fir stands in the coniferous bioclimatic domain were attributed to a decrease in balsam fir regeneration and to an increase in its mortality, most likely due to a lack of suitable establishment substrates (till soils) and cooler temperatures. Small balsam fir populations still persist in the northernmost latitudes of the species’ range, mainly where parental trees occur on good establishment substrates. Our study contributes to a better understanding of the effect of species, climate, and site condition on latitudinal vegetation dynamics at a global scale.

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