The relationship between bank capitalization and socio-economic development: Evidence from European countries

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Abstract
Bank capitalization is a key factor in the banking system’s resilience to economic shocks, as outlined in the Basel Accords on banking regulation. The paper aims to empirically evaluate the connection between bank capitalization and the socio-economic development level. The study uses World Bank data across 34 European countries of varying income levels (high, upper-middle, and lower-middle) for the years 2010, 2015, and 2020 as periods of financial and socio-economic turbulence. The study applies principal component analysis and correlation methods to identify relevant indicators. Countries were grouped using hierarchical clustering and K-means clustering methods. The results of the variance analysis revealed that only two indicators of bank capitalization – the share of non-performing loans and return on assets, and three socio-economic indicators – the Gini index, inflation, and unemployment, were statistically significant. As a result of both qualitative and quantitative changes between clusters, countries were reallocated from four clusters in 2010 and 2015 to three clusters by 2020: high-income countries, including Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Ireland, Iceland, Latvia, and others, consolidated into a single stable cluster (Cluster 3) in terms of both bank capitalization and socio-economic development. The primary drivers of inter-cluster movements were the positive dynamics of non-performing loans and bank assets, superior bank capitalization ratios, and improvements in inflation and unemployment levels. Based on the study’s findings, a matrix of transformational sustainability among European countries has been developed. The analysis confirms a relationship between the components of the chain: “level of bank capitalization – level of socio-economic development”.

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