Developmental Thermal Reaction Norms of Leatherback Marine Turtles at Nesting Beaches

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Abstract
Accurate scientific information is critical for undertaking appropriate conservation and management practices for imperiled species. One source of concern is that research findings might vary for non-biological reasons, including experimental design and analytical methods. To illustrate, we provide detailed modern analysis of reproductive data for leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea). This species exhibits significant fluctuations in nesting densities across different regions, possibly driven by local rather than global factors. Key factors influencing these changes include hatching success and sex determination, both sensitive to incubation temperatures (e.g., lower temperatures yield more males, higher temperatures yield females). This study updates the understanding of temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD) in this species using Bayesian statistics. Growth rate data from the West Pacific and Northwest Atlantic populations show a similar, monotone increase with temperature, affirming the reliability of the models used. The analysis of TSD patterns indicates that observed differences are more likely due to study methodologies and clutch-specific factors rather than regional differences. These findings challenge previous assumptions, showing that leatherback TSD does not conform to a simple on/off pattern but is influenced by multiple, interacting environmental factors. Population dynamics models must account for these complexities, recognizing that both sex ratios and hatching success are critical to understand the rapid changes observed in some leatherback populations.

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