PV degradation methodology comparison — A basis for a standard

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Abstract
What is the best method to determine long-term PV system performance and degradation rates? Ideally, one universally applicable methodology would be desirable so that a single number could be derived. However, data sets vary in their attributes and evidence is presented that defining two methodologies may be preferable. Monte Carlo simulations of artificial performance data allowed investigation of different methodologies and their respective confidence intervals. Tradeoffs between different approaches were delineated, elucidating as to why two separate approaches may need to be included in a standard. Regression approaches tend to be preferable when data sets are less contaminated by seasonality, noise and occurrence of outliers although robust regression can significantly improve the accuracy when outliers are present. In the presence of outliers, marked seasonality, or strong soiling events, year-on-year approaches tend to outperform regression approaches.

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