Test characteristics of the tuberculin skin test and post-mortem examination for bovine tuberculosis diagnosis in cattle in Northern Ireland estimated by Bayesian latent class analysis with adjustments for covariates

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Abstract
The single intradermal comparative cervical tuberculin (SICCT) test and post-mortem examination are the main diagnostic tools for bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in cattle in the British Isles. Latent class modelling is often used to estimate the bTB test characteristics due to the absence of a gold standard. However, the reported sensitivity of especially the SICCT test has shown a lot of variation. We applied both the Hui–Walter latent class model under the Bayesian framework and the Bayesian model specified at the animal level, including various risk factors as predictors, to estimate the SICCT test and post-mortem test characteristics. Data were collected from all cattle slaughtered in abattoirs in Northern Ireland in 2015. Both models showed comparable posterior median estimation for the sensitivity of the SICCT test (88.61% and 90.56%, respectively) using standard interpretation and for post-mortem examination (53.65% and 53.79%, respectively). Both models showed almost identical posterior median estimates for the specificity (99.99% vs. 99.80% for SICCT test at standard interpretation and 99.66% vs. 99.86% for post-mortem examination). The animal-level model showed slightly narrower posterior 95% credible intervals. Notably, this study was carried out in slaughtered cattle which may not be representative for the general cattle population.

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