Using Meteorological Early Warning System (MEUS) and Meteorological Indices for Assessment of Manavgat Forest Fires Occurred in Turkiye July-August 2021

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Abstract
Forest fires are one of the natural disasters that concern all countries in the globalizing world in terms of their effects and consequences. Fires are a vital threat that causes the burning of millions of hectares of forest areas worldwide every year, causing loss of life and property. An early warning system helps people respond to dangers promptly and appropriately. In the scope of this study, the forest fires in Antalya-Manavgat (starting on 28 July 2021 and ending on 6 August 2021) analyzed using the meteorological early warning system (MEUS), which is developed by the employees of the Turkish State Meteorology Service, and the performance of the model products was assessed. Concordantly, the association between the weather conditions in the region and the forest fire was analyzed. Besides, the analysis of the model output products is also considered. By examining the synoptic models, hourly meteorological data and MEUS warnings taken two days before the forest fire selected in the Antalya-Manavgat region, the probabilities created by the meteorological variables that may be effective in the preparation of fire conditions in the region were evaluated.

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