Impact of Verification Grid-Box Size on Warm-Season QPF Skill Measures
- 1 December 2002
- journal article
- Published by American Meteorological Society in Weather and Forecasting
- Vol. 17 (6) , 1296-1302
Abstract
A 10-km-grid-spacing version of NCEP's Eta Model was used to simulate 11 warm-season convective systems occurring over the U.S. upper midwest. Quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) from the model valid for 6-h periods were verified using 4-km-grid-spacing stage-IV precipitation estimates. Verification first was performed on the model's 10-km grid by areally averaging the 4-km observations onto the model grid. To investigate and quantify the impact of the verification grid-box size on some standard skill scores, verification was also performed by averaging the 10-km model forecasts onto 30-km grid boxes and then areally averaging the observations onto the same 30-km grid. As a final test of the impact of the verifying grid-box size, the same 11 events were simulated with a 30-km version of the Eta Model, with verification then being performed on this 30-km grid. For all cases in both the 10- and 30-km versions of the model, 12 variations of the model were used, with variations involving eith... Abstract A 10-km-grid-spacing version of NCEP's Eta Model was used to simulate 11 warm-season convective systems occurring over the U.S. upper midwest. Quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) from the model valid for 6-h periods were verified using 4-km-grid-spacing stage-IV precipitation estimates. Verification first was performed on the model's 10-km grid by areally averaging the 4-km observations onto the model grid. To investigate and quantify the impact of the verification grid-box size on some standard skill scores, verification was also performed by averaging the 10-km model forecasts onto 30-km grid boxes and then areally averaging the observations onto the same 30-km grid. As a final test of the impact of the verifying grid-box size, the same 11 events were simulated with a 30-km version of the Eta Model, with verification then being performed on this 30-km grid. For all cases in both the 10- and 30-km versions of the model, 12 variations of the model were used, with variations involving eith...Keywords
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