Rapid estimation of rupture extent for large earthquakes: Application to the 2004, M9 Sumatra‐Andaman mega‐thrust

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Abstract
Rapid estimation of the rupture extent of large earthquakes is critical for tsunami warning and emergency response. The hypocenter of a distant earthquake is determined from the first seismic P waves within about 15 minutes after the event. However, methods for determining the size and rupture extent of very large earthquakes rely on long period recordings and aftershock locations, which are not available until several hours or more after the event. Here we introduce a method for rapid estimation of the rupture termination location for large earthquakes based on short period, P‐wave recordings, available about 30 minutes after an event. The hypocenter and the rupture termination location provide estimates of the extent of rupture and the event size. Application to the 2004, M9 Sumatra‐Andaman earthquake gives a rupture termination location near the Andaman Islands, about 1100 km north of the hypocenter, and a rupture duration of about 8 minutes.

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