Topographic analysis of local OCT biomarkers which predict progression to atrophy in age-related macular degeneration

Purpose: To define optical coherence tomography (OCT) biomarkers that precede the development of complete retinal pigment epithelium and outer retinal atrophy (cRORA) at that location in eyes with age-related macular degeneration (AMD). Methods: In this retrospective case–control study, patients with dry AMD who had evidence of cRORA and OCT data available for 4 years (48 ± 4 months) prior to the first visit with evidence of cRORA were included. The visit 4 years prior to the development of cRORA was defined as the baseline visit, and the region on the OCT B-scans of future cRORA development was termed the case region. A region in the same eye at the same distance from the foveal center as the case region that did not progress to cRORA was selected as the control region. OCT B-scans at the baseline visit through both the case and control regions were evaluated for the presence of soft and cuticular drusen, drusen with hyporeflective cores (hcD), drusenoid pigment epithelial detachments (PED), subretinal drusenoid deposits (SDD), thick and thin double-layer signs (DLS), intraretinal hyperreflective foci (IHRF), and acquired vitelliform lesions (AVL). Results: A total of 57 eyes of 41 patients with dry AMD and evidence of cRORA were included. Mean time from the baseline visit to the first visit with cRORA was 44.7 $$\pm$$± 6.5 months. The presence of soft drusen, drusenoid PED, AVL, thin DLS, and IHRF at the baseline visit was all associated with a significantly increased risk of cRORA at that location. Multivariable logistic regression revealed that IHRF (OR, 8.559; p < 0.001), drusenoid PED (OR, 7.148; p = 0.001), and a thin DLS (OR, 3.483; p = 0.021) were independent predictors of development of cRORA at that location. Conclusions: IHRF, drusenoid PED, and thin DLS are all local risk factors for the development of cRORA at that same location. These findings would support the inclusion of these features within a more granular staging system defining specific steps in the progression from early AMD to atrophy.