Combining Probability Distributions: A Critique and an Annotated Bibliography

Authors:
  • CGChristian Genest
    Christian Genest
  • JZJames V. Zidek
    James V. Zidek
Open Access
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Abstract
This paper addresses the problem of aggregating a number of expert opinions which have been expressed in some numerical form in order to reflect individual uncertainty vis-a-vis a quantity of interest. The primary focus is consensus belief formation and expert use, although some relevant aspects of group decision making are also reviewed. A taxonomy of solutions is presented which serves as the framework for a survey of recent theoretical developments in the area. A number of current research directions are mentioned and an extensive, current annotated bibliography is included.