Inflation and seasonality in the volatility of online fruit prices in Argentina

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Abstract
Purpose: This paper aims to investigate how inflation and seasonality influence the weekly price volatility of fresh fruits in Argentina, examining pass-through effects and heterogeneous volatility dynamics across 46 products. Design/methodology/approach: Weekly online supermarket prices (December 2015–July 2024) are modeled using EGARCH and EGARCH-X specifications with autoregressive lags, seasonal dummies and a food-and-beverage inflation index. Four objectives guide the analysis: measuring inflation pass-through; characterizing persistence and asymmetry; testing macroeconomic effects on conditional variance and examining how product characteristics shape volatility profiles. Findings: Inflation significantly increases the mean prices across all fruits. Volatility responses are highly heterogeneous: perishable items exhibit pronounced leverage effects and high persistence, while processed and shelf-stable fruits show faster mean-reversion and lower asymmetry. Seasonal effects are significant for products with narrow harvest windows. Leverage effects appear driven primarily by perishability and market concentration rather than country-specific macro conditions. Research limitations/implications: Data cover online retail only, excluding informal markets. The inflation index is a broad aggregate; fruit-specific cost drivers are not isolated. The EGARCH specification assumes time-invariant asymmetry. Structural breaks from COVID-19 or the 2018–2019 currency crisis are not explicitly tested. Panel GARCH and time-varying models are suggested extensions. Practical implications: Identifying volatility-sensitive fruits supports retail pricing strategies, subsidy targeting and anti-poverty interventions. Consumers benefit from understanding timing and substitution opportunities during inflationary or seasonal price peaks. Social implications: Identifying inflation-sensitive fruits helps design better retail pricing, subsidy programs and policy responses. Understanding volatility patterns also supports consumers in adjusting their purchasing behavior during inflationary episodes or seasonal price peaks. Originality/value: One of the first high-frequency studies of fruit price volatility under inflation in Latin America, validating online price data as a reliable tracking tool and contributing a three-component volatility decomposition with cross-country generalizability.
Funding Information
  • Secretaría General de Ciencia y Tecnología, Universidad Nacional del Sur (Proyecto Grupo de Investigación 24/E187)

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