The University of North Carolina Caries Risk Assessment Study I: Rationale and Content

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Abstract
This article presents the rationale and content of a current study that seeks to improve methods to identify children at high risk to dental caries. It summarizes the results of the development of a 12‐factor, preliminary caries prediction model based on data derived from the National Preventive Demonstration Program. Despite data limitations, the model produced a sensitivity of .5 and specificity of .8 for four‐year caries increment prediction in first‐and fifth‐grade children. Data on a number of additional potential predictors are being collected in two sites to expand and improve the existing model. These factors are identified.

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