Assessing Early Warning Systems: How Have they Worked in Practice?
Authors:
- Andrew BergABAndrew Berg
- Eduardo BorenszteinEBEduardo Borensztein
- Catherine A. PattilloCPCatherine A. Pattillo
- 1 January 2004
- journal article
- Published by International Monetary Fund (IMF) in IMF Working Papers
- Vol. 04 (52)
Abstract
Since 1999, the IMF's staff has been tracking several early-warning-system (EWS) models of currency crisis. The results have been mixed. One of the long-horizon models has performed well relative to pure guesswork and to available non-model-based forecasts, such as agency ratings and private analysts' currency crisis risk scores. The data do not speak clearly on the other long-horizon EWS model. The two short-horizon private sector models generally performed poorly.Keywords
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