Is the proportion of per capita fat supply associated with the prevalence of overweight and obesity? an ecological analysis

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Abstract
Background: Although it is reported in numerous interventional and observational studies, that a low-fat diet is an effective method to combat overweight and obesity, the relationship at the global population level is not well established. This study aimed to quantify the associations between worldwide per capita fat supply and prevalence of overweight and obesity and further classify this association based on per capita Gross National Income (GNI). Methods: A total of 93 countries from four GNI groups were selected. Country-specific overweight and obesity prevalence data were retrieved from the most recent WHO Global Health Observatory database. Per capita supply of fat and calories were obtained from the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization database; FAOSTAT, Food Balance Sheet for years 2014–2016. The categorizations of countries were done based on GNI based classification by the World Bank. Results: Among the selected countries, the overweight prevalence ranged from 3.9% (India) to 78.8% (Kiribati), while obesity prevalence ranged from 3.6% (Bangladesh) to 46.0% (Kiribati). The highest and the lowest per capita fat supply from total calorie supply were documented in Australia (41.2%) and Madagascar (10.5%) respectively. A significant strong positive correlation was observed between the prevalence of overweight (r = 0.64, p < 0.001) and obesity (r = 0.59, p < 0.001) with per capita fat supply. The lower ends of both trend lines were densely populated by the low- and lower-middle-income countries and the upper ends of both lines were greatly populated by the high-income countries. Conclusions: Per capita fat supply per country is significantly associated with both prevalence of overweight and obesity.

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